Economists are warning that a powerful El Niño developing in 2026 could trigger a major rise in global food prices, with the effects potentially lasting until the second half of 2028. The concern comes as food costs are already at their highest level in three years, boosted by the disruption linked to the Iran war.
According to the report, scientists and forecasters see a historically unusual chance that the 2026-27 El Niño could become a very strong event. NOAA said last month that warming conditions were emerging in the Pacific and estimated a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures could climb more than 2C above normal later this year. Such conditions can bring heatwaves, flooding and stormier weather, all of which can damage harvests.
Food supply chains under pressure
Goldman Sachs analysts said the event could lift global food commodity prices by 15.8%, while eurozone food prices could rise by 1.3%. They also said the full impact would take time to work through global supply chains because crops are planted, grown and harvested on different schedules around the world, and because shipping routes can be affected by water levels in canals and rivers. UBS analysts added that El Niño does not hit agriculture evenly, but instead creates regional winners and losers.
UniCredit described the situation as bringing “climateflation” back into focus, arguing that recent heatwaves in Europe show how the climate baseline has already shifted. The report notes that strong El Niño events have previously been among the most severe on record, including episodes in 1981-82, 1996-97, 2015-16 and 2023-24, and that the coming cycle could be even more disruptive for harvests and food supplies worldwide.
Source: theguardian.com
