Prediction markets stood out in an otherwise weaker quarter for digital assets, reaching a record $113.8 billion in notional volume in the second quarter of 2026, according to CoinGecko’s latest Crypto Industry Report. The milestone came as several major parts of the crypto market moved in the opposite direction, including spot trading on centralized exchanges, perpetual futures activity and stablecoin market capitalization.
CoinGecko said spot volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges fell to $1.95 trillion in Q2 from $2.7 trillion in Q1, a decline of 27.9%. Perpetual futures trading on CEXs also eased, slipping 10% to $12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market contracted 1.6% to $305.1 billion. Overall crypto market capitalization dropped 12.6% during the quarter to $2.1 trillion, underscoring the broader slowdown.
Prediction markets gain momentum as sports and politics drive activity
The report points to sports and politics as the main forces behind the sector’s growth. Activity peaked in June, when monthly notional volume hit an all-time high of $50.7 billion, a figure CoinGecko said was 91.9% above the average monthly level over the previous five months. Polymarket’s World Cup winner market drew more than $3.3 billion in volume, while contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election were among the platform’s largest markets, based on Polymarketscan data.
Kalshi remained the largest prediction market platform in the quarter with a 58.9% market share. Polymarket’s share fell from 35.8% to 30.2%, while Robinhood-backed Rothera Markets moved up to fourth place. The growth has also attracted regulatory scrutiny, with US authorities and state officials debating whether prediction markets should be treated as financial markets or gambling products. Similar restrictions have appeared in other jurisdictions, where concerns include gambling rules, market integrity and possible insider trading.
Elsewhere in crypto, Binance kept its lead among spot CEXs with a 38.7% market share even as trading volumes weakened. MEXC saw the sharpest decline, with volume dropping from $275.2 billion in Q1 to $121.2 billion in Q2. Decentralized exchange activity also softened, with the top 10 spot DEXs processing $408.9 billion, down from $556.4 billion in the first quarter. Uniswap remained the largest DEX, holding 41.2% of the market despite a 21.4% drop in volume to $168.5 billion.
Source: cointelegraph.com
