Novo Nordisk’s latest update gave investors a better outlook for the year, but it did not shift the broader debate around the company’s obesity franchise. Shares in the Danish drugmaker fell after the company raised guidance late Tuesday, as analysts said the quarter’s upside was helped by rebate changes and other temporary factors rather than a clear improvement in underlying momentum.
The company now expects adjusted sales and operating profit to decline by 6% to flat at constant exchange rates, a narrower range than its earlier forecast for a drop of 4% to 12%. Even so, analysts pointed out that obesity drug sales were roughly in line with expectations and that oral Wegovy came in slightly below forecasts. Novo also disclosed another mixed clinical outcome for CagriSema, its next-generation weight-loss treatment, which added to doubts about the strength of its future pipeline.
Market reaction was negative. Copenhagen-listed shares fell as much as 5% before trimming losses to 3.4% lower in morning trading, while the company’s U.S.-listed shares dropped 6% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the results were released earlier than expected. Citi analysts said there was “nothing to inspire,” while Jefferies noted that the improved guidance left limited room for consensus estimates to move higher.
Competition and pipeline pressure remain central
Novo said the upgraded outlook reflects stronger expectations for GLP-1 sales, especially from its Wegovy portfolio, which includes both the injectable version and the pill. The company said the Wegovy pill has surpassed 5 million prescriptions since launch, with early uptake outside the U.S. also encouraging. Novo has also begun rolling out a newly approved higher dose of injectable Wegovy.
Still, the company is under heavy pressure from Eli Lilly, whose Zepbound and Mounjaro have gained market share in the U.S. even though they launched later than Novo’s products. Novo’s shares have fallen about 5% this year and remain far below their mid-2024 peak, though they have recovered some ground after the Wegovy pill launch. According to the report, restoring confidence in the company’s ability to execute in the U.S. market and deliver a convincing path to sustainable growth remains the key challenge for investors.
Source: cnbc.com
